Gartner Hype Cycle on Emerging Tech 2007

The tera architecture is interesting in that it promises to reduce the cost of computing by 10%. With virtualization emerging in businesses and computing today, I find it hard to believe that it's so far off from now. Leave it up to Google to kick this one off and change the industry! I'm curious as to how this will revolutionize how we do business, the future of application development, and the computing possibilities of the future. More Power!

The 3d printing was an interesting concept. Drawings and schema's can have new life while changing the look and feel of business presentations. The 3d cad and 3d cutting of materials has been around for awhile and I am interested to see if this technology actually catches on. I think 3d modeling using holographics would be more interesting than a 3rd print.

I like gesture recognition and this technology can be seen in Apple's new iPhone. People are becoming more lazy and prefer small, simple movements to perform complex tasks (i.e scrolling with a mouse versus a touchpad on laptop computers). Image if more functions could be performed using other gestures like eye movements, simple movements of the fingers (i.e the tap tap of the finger to double click). The Wii has changed how we play and entertain ourselves.. I'm curious to see how they make games even more interactive for us and how we interact with others.

Web 2.0 -- the changes to the web to make our experience more interactive and more inter-connected have been a wonderful addition to my life. Through the use of collaboration tools for school work, social networks to catch up with old friends, I'm interested to see how this is going to evolve in the future with Web 3.0.

Wharton Chapter 2 - The Pitfalls of Emerging Technology

How do companies avoid the pitfalls of emerging technologies? The first half of the chapter covered the 4 traps a company might encounter with emerging technology.

1. The delayed participation -"watch and wait" theory. Carefully weigh the value of the project before jumping in
2. Sticking with the familiar -dislike of ambiguity and risk averse. If this system works, why change and go down a winding path of uncertainty
3. Reluctance to fully commit - resistance from channel partners, projected low returns from an emerging technology
4. Lack of Persistence - High levels in the company might not recognize the benefit and cut the venture. Emerging tech is known for it's failure rates - an easy target when money is needed

These four traps are very common for businesses to fall into. Emerging technology is ambiguous and contains high levels of uncertainty. For many companies, a wait and see approach allows them to reap the benefits of their competitors mistakes (but also has a chance of losing market share because they do not have the 1st mover advantage). Companies become complacent and enjoy working in comfortable environments. Emerging technology is seldom comfortable because of the levels of risk involved. Comfortability over time can also mean status quo. Companies can be reluctant to commit if the culture does not support the change or if the company is not ready to move in a new direction. Some companies treat emerging tech like poker: know when to hold 'em, some know when to fold 'em. When you fold, you lose your chances of winning the pot. Other companies lack the visionaries that can push and be persistent for emerging technology. A bottom up approach is harder to sell emerging tech than top down.

The second half of the chapter outlined "crafting solutions". Viewing emerging technology with the blinders off allows companies to move in new directions and see new opportunities. These new directions are sometimes hard to see but allow companies to shift in new directions and ways of thinking. How will this emerging tech benefit our customer and does it align with the companies strategic goals? This change when coupled with a learning environment allow for an openness of differing viewpoints within the company to help challenge the mindset and emerging technology projects succeed. When companies challenge the mindset and think outside of the box, companies can begin to experiment to provide new insights and possibilities of the technology. But, companies need to be both flexible and committed (the business paradox of emerging technology) to be successful.