Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Wharton Chapter 6 - Assessing Future Markets for New Technologies

With new and emerging technologies, it is sometimes difficult to find a market or a customer to fit these technologies, the price they would be willing to pay, how they will use these technologies, or if the market will be accepting of these technologies. We can learn and understand markets by evaluating the relative size and supporting infrastructure for the new technology. There are three approaches that useful assessments of markets:


  • Diffusion and Adoption - technologies diffuse in a market at different rates and some technologies are adopted early and some not at all. Determine the value of the new product relative to the best alternatives in the market but be mindful of barriers in the market that might affect acceptance. Be mindful of innovation and price of new technologies when evaluating markets. Analyze consumer behaviors and user requirements in a given market to determine possible adoption rates of the technology. There will be early and late adopters if the technology takes off in a given market.

  • Exploration and Learning - informed anticipation by watching other exploration efforts to see how products and technologies have faired in the market and making anticipatory actions to capture opportunities. Analyze what you need to know about the market and intrepret the findings to determine market expectations and how to proceed.
  • Try not to assume too much about the market and the preferences associated with it.

  • Triangulation for Insights - absorb uncertainty and anticipate opportunities. Start with diverse market research and analyze the approaches and findings from each of the research methods. Look for different approaches that ask similar questions -this typically yields patterns and a probably bias. Look to users that are pioneers in the market (much like wait and watch approach) and tend to lead the technology. Learning from their mistakes and approaches can help you succeed. Analyze markets for indirect evidence of market needs through looking at potential customers and ask customers about frustrations and needs to determine if the market is the right one to enter. Use modeling techniques to try and anticipate the possible level of adoption and integration into the market.

There are numerous technologies that have used this methodology to find new opportunistic markets for emerging technologies. Nanotechnology has applications in so many different markets that in some cases, it can apply to almost all markets. But, in order to implement. companies must find markets that will readily adopt this technology. The biomedical field has seen numerous nanotechnology-related products become adopted but will all humans accept nanotechnologies as part of their healthcare. Companies researching and implementing nanotechnology are carefully watching the market to see what their competitors are doing, how consumers are accepting and integrating nanotechnology into their lives, and the long term affects of this technology. Costs associated with nanotechnology in biomedicine (because of research) can be higher and not all patients will be willing to pay for these costs.