WSJ - Predictions of the Past

Summary: The article evaluated technology predictions from 1998 to determine if the trends and changes in technology over the next 10 years would come true. The article looked at the following areas:

• Changes in social dymanics
• The new wave of desktop PC technology and computing power over 10 years
• Cell phone usage in US
• Obtaining electronic music
• The use of E-books and E-book technology
• Online Education versus brick-and-mortor institutions for learning
• Outsourcing and emerging countries that benefit from technology
• The banking industry and electronic transfers

It was interesting that predictors did not forsee the social impacts of online tools. Chat was very popular in the 90's and today. I find it hard to believe that they did not believe that individuals would not want to be more creative and expressive using different tools and channels to connect with friends,relatives, or colleagues.

The PC prediction was to be expected looking at trends in technology over the last 20 years and the leaps and bounds made in personal computing capacity and capability. I thought that they might actually be further ahead than they are today.

I wasn't too surprised over the increase in cell-phone usage as I see children at 5 years of age with their own cellphone these days. With the mass adoption of cellphone for both personal and professional use, it's no wonder that 81% of the pop have a cell phone (some have as many as 2 or 3).

The electronic sharing of music was in it's peak around the late 90's and early 2000 with Napster and other P2P music sharing apps. I am surprised that mini-disc didn't do more for the advances in digital music players and the sharing of music.

I've tried ebooks and reading online and I don't like it. If there was a way to decrease the contrast and make it easier on the eyes, I think more people would be utilizing this technology. I've seen the ebook kiosks in airports and I'm interested in trying that the next time I travel.

Online instutions have their place but I think it's hard to beat a brick-and-mortar classroom to share ideas and learn. Even with online courses, sharing information and concepts I find is more difficult because body language and sometimes tone are left out. Having resources online has been wonderful (i.e. library resources for doing research).

Outsourcing to emerging countries has shown to be both successful and detrimental to our economy. I'm sure this will be discussed more in class.

I contribute to the electronic banking industry and I was happy to hear that forecasters were wrong about this technology. The majority of my banking activity is done through electronic payments and transfers as this has been commonly accepted by most of the younger generations.